RUINS
Risk, uncertainty and insurance under climate change.
Coastal Land Management on the German North Sea
Project period: September 2018 – August 2022
Project description: The impacts of climate change as well as the consequences of adaptations are uncertain. These uncertainties may be deeper than “risk”, where one knows at least the probabilities of potential future outcomes. In particular, there may be “Knightian uncertainty”, where one knows the potential outcomes but not their probabilities. In this inter- and transdisciplinary project, we study both risk and Knightian uncertainty of climate change impacts and adaptation options for the case of coastal land management on the German North Sea, where people benefit from a suite of ecosystem services which are subject to climate change and to alternative land management options. In this case, both risk and uncertainty are relevant for decision-making about local adaptations to climate change. We combine economics with landscape ecology through modelling, and we include local stakeholders in the process of analysis and conclusion. Our project has three aims: (1) To develop concepts for the economic valuation of adaptation options and concepts of (natural or financial) insurance under Knightian uncertainty. (2) To develop a procedure to assess and communicate combined risk-and-uncertainty throughout the full chain of analysis and implementation – from basic science all the way to practical solution. (3) To identify – in exchange with stakeholders – which potential land management option is their preferred way of addressing the risks and uncertainties of (adapting to) climate change. This includes identifying stakeholders’ risk-and-uncertainty preferences as well as potential synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between ecosystem services and between stakeholder groups. These aims are achieved through a work program that comprises the following work packages: · Work package 1 (Uni Freiburg): Conceptualization and theoretical foundation of preferences, valuation and insurance under Knightian uncertainty; · Work package 2 (TU Braunschweig): Environmental modelling of ecosystem services at the landscape level for different land management options, and uncertainty analysis; · Work package 3 (Uni Freiburg): Empirical elicitation of risk and uncertainty preferences of stakeholders; · Work package 4 (Uni Freiburg, with contribution from TU Braunschweig): Project management, integration of research results, organization of stakeholder relations, knowledge transfer. Our project produces (1) an economic valuation of the land management options currently discussed in the case study region, including an identification of potential conflicts; (2) a transfer of results to stakeholders, through workshops and a policy brief for decision-makers; (3) 6-7 publications in academic journals, 18 presentations at international conferences; (4) 2 contributions to the international Summer School on Sustainability Economics and 6 Bachelor or Master theses.
Principal investigators: Prof. Dr. Boris Schröder-Esselbach, Technical University of Braunschweig, Professorship of Landscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis
Detailed project information: for download (pdf)
Contact persons: Prof. Dr. Boris Schröder-Esselbach
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